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The latest Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index reveals that Bristol has become the first city outside of the South East to see house prices rise at a faster rate than London for more than six years (January 2010).
Year on year house price inflation in Bristol reached 14.1% in May as it surpassed London (13.8%) and Cambridge (13.4%) to top the Index. This is part of trend whereby large regional cities have registered the highest growth rates over the past three months, led by Liverpool (5.4%), Bristol (4.2%), Manchester (3.9%) and Leeds (3.7%) driven by an improving economic outlook and strong demand from investors ahead of the stamp duty deadline on 1 April 2016. Overall city level house price inflation rose from 10.8% in April to 11.2% in May.
However, London was one of eight cities to register slower year on year growth, slowing from 14.2% in April to 13.8% in May. Hometrack expects to see a rapid deceleration in house price growth throughout the remainder of 2016, particularly in London, as buyers adopt a wait and see approach to assess the short term impact on financial markets and the economy at large in the wake of the EU vote.
Richard Donnell, Insight Director at Hometrack says: “House price inflation in major cities outside of London and the South East, such as Bristol and Liverpool has been accelerating but it is now expected to slow towards low single digits in the coming months as demand cools on the back of the EU referendum result. At present we expect housing market turnover to bear the brunt of increased uncertainty rather than house prices.
“Standing back from the immediate turmoil in financial markets, the reality is that the fundamentals of the housing market remain unchanged with record low mortgage rates and a wide imbalance between supply and demand. The UK doesn’t have a problem with housing demand, the more important question is how many buyers and sellers feel confident to participate in the market in the near term.
“Market sentiment can change quickly and the sooner a clear picture emerges over the likely impact on the economy and the outlook for jobs and mortgage rates the sooner transaction volumes should stabilise and more buyers return to the market.”
The Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index is Not Seasonally Adjusted
NOTE – The definition of London ‘City’ is larger than the London Government Region. The ‘City definition extends further out into London’s travel to work area capturing the commuter areas outside the 33 London Boroughs. The London ‘City’ area covers 44 local authorities and better represents the housing markets that are influenced by the London economy.
About the Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index
The new Hometrack UK Cities House Price index has been designed to provide a granular analysis of housing market trends at a city level – cities are the focus for economic and demographic change as well as a focus for greater cross-area collaboration. The 20 cities in this new house price index cover a land area that is less than 5% of the UK but the cities contain over 40% of the value of UK housing and a similar proportion of all UK jobs. (See notes for more information on the index series.)
NOTES FOR EDITORS
1. Hometrack’s house price indices (HPI) are designed to track, as closely as possible, the performance of UK residential capital values over time. We have a track record of developing and running proprietary, localised, sub-regional house price indices for over a decade. Localised house price indices form a key part of the Hometrack automated valuation model where indexation is a key element of the valuation system. This valuation system is trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the UK.
2. From October 2014, we are publishing a unique index based on 20 UK cities. We will also be producing indexes for the UK, Government Regions and the countries of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Interactive analysis, further information and FAQs on the index can be found at www.hometrack.com.
3. This new Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index is very different to our historic monthly housing survey which was an aggregation of the views of a large sample of agents and surveyors on key market trends in their local area. The survey has been dis-continued. Selected market metrics from the survey are being calculated from listings data and are available in Hometrack products and services.
4. The geographic definition of a city is based upon Primary Urban Areas – these cover the built up area of a city or a city region. Primary Urban Areas for English cities were defined in a report published by Government entitled The State of the English Cities Volume 1, ODPM, 2006. All cities are based upon amalgamations of single or multiple local authorities. The Primary Urban Area methodology has been applied to major cities across the rest of the UK covering Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
5. Hometrack’s UK Cities House Price Index is created using a repeat sales based methodology drawing upon a large database comprising 100% of recorded sales prices from the Land Registry ‘Price Paid’ dataset and equivalent data from the Registers of Scotland. This price paid data is supplemented by mortgage valuation data.
6. The Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index is weighted according to the volume of private housing stock in each geographic area. The property type weightings are adjusted dynamically over time each quarter as the stock of housing grows, but the absolute changes are small.
7. The primary output of the UK Cities House Price Index build process is a monthly ‘multiplier’, the amount by which house prices have changed over the period based on the available evidence for the relevant geography. This monthly multiplier is used to create an index of house prices.
8. The Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index is revisionary i.e. there are revisions each month as more data comes available as sales are registered and further information becomes available. All UK house price indices are published on a revisionary basis. The scale of monthly revisions tends to be larger for smaller geographies where sales volumes are lower and indices can be more volatile at the leading edge. The historic revisions are minimal for the largest geographies.
9. The series are supplied on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
10. In order to calculate the average price, the monthly price changes are applied to an average price to create a time series for average house prices from a base date which was in December 2013.
11. All average prices and percentage changes are expressed in nominal terms i.e. not adjusted for inflation.
12. Further information can be found at ww.hometrack.com
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