hometrack

Contact Us

What are you interested in?
Valuations
Market Intelligence
Risk Analytics

Cancel

Cancel

Confirming payment details

Payment processing

Login or Sign up

Use the form below to login to your account. If you have problems contact the helpdesk.

Cancel
Cancel

Forgot password

Enter your email address and we will send you a password reset link or need more help?

Cancel

August 2016 - City level house price growth running at 8.2%

On 23 September, 2016
  • City level house price growth running at 8.2% as growth slows, led by southern cities
  • London house price growth on course to end year at +6% yoy but with slower underlying rate.
  • Cities with shortest recovery registering fastest growth in last quarter – Liverpool and Glasgow.

The pace of city level house price inflation is slowing with growth in the year to August 2016 running at 8.2%. The 20 city index recorded its lowest level of quarterly growth (1.9%) for 6 months as a seasonal lull in market activity and weaker demand post Brexit and the March Stamp Duty change reduce the upward momentum of house price growth

Bristol continues to register the fastest rate of annual growth (13.1%) followed by London (10.4%) but the trend in these cities is towards slower growth. A similar trend is evident across most cities located in southern England including Cambridge, Oxford and Bournemouth where annual growth has slowed in the last few months.

Cambridge has registered the fastest deceleration in growth from an annual rate of 16% in March 2016 to just 6% today as affordability pressures and weaker investor demand impact growth.

London growth heading to 6% by year end

London has registered a modest 0.9% increase in house prices over the last three months, more than half the average quarterly growth rate over the last 12 months (1.9%) – if this trend continues, as seems highly likely, then house price growth in the capital will be running at c.6% per annum by the year end and on course for low single digit growth by spring 2017. Record unaffordability, tax changes that impact investor demand and high stamp duty costs are all combining to reduce market activity in the face of rising supply.

Inner London has lowest growth and recent falls

A more granular view on London reveals the lowest rates of annual growth in the highest value, inner London boroughs - Kensington & Chelsea (0.2%), Hammersmith and Fulham (1.0%), Westminster (1.8%), Wandsworth (4.1%) and Camden (4.4%). Most of these areas have been registering small price falls over recent months and further single digit falls are likely in the months ahead as pricing levels re-align to what buyers are prepared to pay.

City level summary, August 2016
Source: Hometrack House Price Indices

 

London not a single housing market

It is dangerous to view London as a single housing market - the highest rates of house price growth remain in the outer London boroughs of Barking and Dagenham (16.2%) and Havering (14.6%) where average house prices are 30% lower than the London average. Affordability is running out fast in these markets which have significantly out-performed central London for the last 2 years and single digit growth awaits in the months ahead.

Liverpool sees fastest growth in last 3 months

While house prices in London and other southern cities have been rising consistently for approaching 8 years, supported by strong investor demand and low mortgage rates, there are several cities where the recovery has been more short-lived. The city housing markets with the strongest underlying rates of growth remain those that have some of the lowest prices and where the pick-up in prices has been running for the shortest period of time. Liverpool and Glasgow have recorded the fastest growth in the last three months where average house prices of £114,000 are around half the price of the 20 city average (£239,400).

Aberdeen price falls starting to reverse

Other regional cities such as Birmingham, Edinburgh and Aberdeen have posted house price increases of more than 2% in the last quarter, all above the 20 city average over the same period (1.9%). This something of a turnaround for Aberdeen where average prices fell by £20,000 or 10% since July 2015 but where they have rebounded in the last quarter now the impact of the falling oil prices has been priced into capital values.

 

Fig. 1 – 20 City house price index
Source: Hometrack House Price Indices
Fig. 2 – Cities - YoY growth and relative to 2007
Source: Hometrack House Price Indices
Table 1- UK 20 city index summary, August 2016
Table 1- UK 20 city index summary, August 2016
Source: Hometrack House Price Indices
August 2016 - City level house price growth running at 8.2%
Download the PDF

Related articles

January 2017 24 February, 2017

City level house price inflation is running at 6.9% while growth in London (6.4%) is running at its lowest level for 4 years and set to slow further. House prices in many regional cities where the recovery has been muted have material upside so long as the economy continues to grow and mortgage rates remain low.

December 2016 - London drops to 7th in house price growth rankings 20 January, 2017

House price inflation in Manchester hits 12 year high. Growth in regional cities continues to overhaul London which dropped to 7th in the city house price growth rankings for 2016. Bristol is still the fastest growing city +9.6% but could be overtaken by Manchester in Q1.

November 2016 - City house price growth to slow to 4% over 2017 16 December, 2016

City level house price growth is running at 7.7%, in line with our projections this time last year. We expect city house price growth to slow to 4% in 2017 with weaker growth in London and other southern cities offset by sustained growth in large regional cities.

October 2016 - London breaks 14x house price to earnings ratio 24 November, 2016

City level house price growth is holding steady at 8.4%. This month we reveal an updated view on city level affordability. This finds that after an 86% uplift in house prices since 2009, the price to earnings ratio in London now sits above 14x with Oxford and Cambridge close behind. Other cities are at or below their long run average. Read the Report to find out what this means for city level house price inflation.