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UK house prices ended the year 8.3% up in 2014 according to the Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index. The rate of growth increased over the year, up from 4.5% in 2013 and 1.1% in 2012.
The rate of growth over 2014 varied by ten percentage points across the 20 cities covered by the index. Liverpool registered the lowest increase at 4.7% with London the highest at 14.7%.
Thirteen cities registered house price inflation below the UK average, showing the influence of a strong London market on the headline rate of growth.
As the recovery in UK house prices has spread so the gap between the best and worst performing cities has narrowed to its lowest level for 15 years.
There are now two distinct groups of cities. Firstly those where the level of house price inflation has continued to increase off a low base, after years of either static or falling prices. Second, those that have enjoyed strong house price recovery over the last two years but where house price growth is starting to slow off a high base on price sensitive demand and affordability constraints.
Figure 1 shows the distribution of house price growth at city level ordered on growth in the year to December 2014. The year on year rate of growth in June 2014 is shown as a comparison.
Four of the top 5 cities for house price growth have seen the rate of growth slow over 2014H2 led by London, Oxford, Bristol and Cambridge.
Of the higher growth markets only Aberdeen has seen an increase in the rate of growth in the second half of 2014. Aberdeen has been the fourth strongest performing city since 2007 thanks to increased investment in the oil and gas industry which has boosted jobs and demand for housing. Falls in the oil price and early signs of reduced investment is starting to impact demand and house prices are starting to register small falls.
The Scottish cities have led the acceleration in house price growth over 2014H2 supported by the removal of uncertainty created by the independence referendum. Edinburgh has been the strongest performer with year on year growth up from 4.4% in June to 10.1% by December.
Eleven cities grow and seven slow as disparity in house price inflation narrows
Other notable pick-ups in the annual rate of growth have been registered in Newcastle, Liverpool and Leicester where growth is off a low base and currently ranges from 4.7% to 7.1% year on year. These cities saw house prices bottom out in 2012 and average values today are still below their 2007 peak level by between 2% and 15%.
House price growth at a city level looks set to converge further in the first half of 2015 as high growth markets continue to slow and lower growth markets start to see growth plateau. Pent-up demand has fed back into the market in the last 2 years, supported by record low mortgage rates, but mortgage approvals have slowed in recent months.
Low mortgage rates are making housing look affordable but it is the willingness and ability of households to borrow that will most influence the housing market in 2015. It’s a balance between the positives of continued economic growth and rising earnings against greater mortgage regulation and affordability constraints.
There has been continued growth in large regional cities, despite house price inflation slowing to 5.4%. ZPG listings data shows discounts to asking prices are narrowing, indicating market conditions are improving across cities outside south eastern England. Increased discounting can be seen in London, where price growth has slowed to +1.8%.
City house price inflation has increased to 6.3%. The fastest growth is being registered in cities which have recorded the weakest growth since 2009. We expect city house prices to increase by 5% in 2018.
City house price inflation is 6.1% as price growth picks up speed, driven by regional cities where affordability levels, measured on a price to earnings basis, are in line with the 15-year average. In London affordability is at an all-time high of 14.5x earnings.
City house price inflation is running at 4.9%. Edinburgh is the fastest growing city, overtaking Manchester. House price inflation across London City is 2.3% although low growth means 85% of markets are registering price falls in real terms. We consider the outlook and the impact of a possible increase in interest rates.