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UK house prices increased by 7.9% in the 12 months to January 2015, down from 8.1% from December 2014. The underlying 3 month annualised rate of growth stands at 4.6%. For the last five months the weakest performing cities have been registering positive growth on a rising trend. The impetus for national house price growth is emerging from the lower growth cities where house prices have been recovering for a limited period.
At a city level the annual rate of growth ranges from 4.1% in Glasgow to 16.3% in Aberdeen. Figure 1 shows the spread in year on year growth between the highest and lowest growth cities since 2002. Belfast was the city registering 60% year on year growth in mid 2007 where prices today are 50% below their peak, 2007, levels.
For the last five months the weakest performing cities have been registering positive growth on a rising trend. The impetus for national house price growth is emerging from the lower growth cities where house prices have been recovering for a limited period. We expect the gap between high and low growth cities to narrow further in the months ahead as house price inflation slows in the higher growth markets.
The profile of the recent recovery in house prices varies across markets. There are two distinct groups of cities shown in figure 2. First are those where house prices bottomed out in 2008/9 and have been recovering for 5-6 years. Second are cities where prices stopped falling as late as 2013 and the recovery has been shorter, running for the last 2-3 years.
Figure 2 shows the level of house price inflation from these recent lows with average prices in London up 55% compared to just 6% in Glasgow.
The length of time a city has seen house prices recover is not correlated to the level of house price growth. Fourteen cities saw house prices trough in 2008/9 with the strongest gains in southern England. The lowest growth has been seen in cities such as Manchester and Birmingham where the performance of house prices is more reliant on the local economy and growth in incomes and employment.
The high growth, high value cities have now largely priced in lower mortgage rates and affordability pressures are set to limit the rate of house price inflation. London (13.6), Bristol (10.8%), Oxford (8.6%) and Cambridge (5.3%) are all continuing to register slower house price inflation.
The overall outlook is for continued house price growth but at a lower rate. There are no signs of any price falls at a city level. Demand continues to be stimulated by record low mortgage rates, falling unemployment and rising earnings. A lack of housing for sale will continue to keep an upward pressure on house prices. We expect the cities that have under-performed to continue to provide the impetus for house price growth in 2015.
House price inflation varies between markets and whether developing, investing or lending into local housing markets these local differentials are important.
What the analysis does show is the dangers of focusing on the UK rate of house price inflation and even regional growth rates. House price inflation varies between markets and whether developing, investing or lending into local housing markets these local differentials are important. For example, some house price indices put Scottish house price inflation in double digits while city level price inflation is much lower. Having an accurate view on house price growth is important for better informed decision making.
City level house price growth rate is 6.4%, up from 4.9% at the end of last year. 2017Q1 saw city level house prices rise by 3.5%, the highest quarterly rate of price inflation for 3 years. House price inflation in London continues to slow and has now reached 4.9% yoy which means the capital is among the five slowest growing cities along with Oxford and Cambridge.
City house price growth slows to 6.4%. Manchester fastest growing city as London slips to 10th in growth rankings. New analysis of city turnover reveals large increases and falls. Overall city turnover expected to be flat in 2017.
City level house price inflation is running at 6.9% while growth in London (6.4%) is running at its lowest level for 4 years and set to slow further. House prices in many regional cities where the recovery has been muted have material upside so long as the economy continues to grow and mortgage rates remain low.
House price inflation in Manchester hits 12 year high. Growth in regional cities continues to overhaul London which dropped to 7th in the city house price growth rankings for 2016. Bristol is still the fastest growing city +9.6% but could be overtaken by Manchester in Q1.