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UK house prices increased by 7.9% in the 12 months to January 2015, down from 8.1% from December 2014. The underlying 3 month annualised rate of growth stands at 4.6%. For the last five months the weakest performing cities have been registering positive growth on a rising trend. The impetus for national house price growth is emerging from the lower growth cities where house prices have been recovering for a limited period.
At a city level the annual rate of growth ranges from 4.1% in Glasgow to 16.3% in Aberdeen. Figure 1 shows the spread in year on year growth between the highest and lowest growth cities since 2002. Belfast was the city registering 60% year on year growth in mid 2007 where prices today are 50% below their peak, 2007, levels.
For the last five months the weakest performing cities have been registering positive growth on a rising trend. The impetus for national house price growth is emerging from the lower growth cities where house prices have been recovering for a limited period. We expect the gap between high and low growth cities to narrow further in the months ahead as house price inflation slows in the higher growth markets.
The profile of the recent recovery in house prices varies across markets. There are two distinct groups of cities shown in figure 2. First are those where house prices bottomed out in 2008/9 and have been recovering for 5-6 years. Second are cities where prices stopped falling as late as 2013 and the recovery has been shorter, running for the last 2-3 years.
Figure 2 shows the level of house price inflation from these recent lows with average prices in London up 55% compared to just 6% in Glasgow.
The length of time a city has seen house prices recover is not correlated to the level of house price growth. Fourteen cities saw house prices trough in 2008/9 with the strongest gains in southern England. The lowest growth has been seen in cities such as Manchester and Birmingham where the performance of house prices is more reliant on the local economy and growth in incomes and employment.
The high growth, high value cities have now largely priced in lower mortgage rates and affordability pressures are set to limit the rate of house price inflation. London (13.6), Bristol (10.8%), Oxford (8.6%) and Cambridge (5.3%) are all continuing to register slower house price inflation.
The overall outlook is for continued house price growth but at a lower rate. There are no signs of any price falls at a city level. Demand continues to be stimulated by record low mortgage rates, falling unemployment and rising earnings. A lack of housing for sale will continue to keep an upward pressure on house prices. We expect the cities that have under-performed to continue to provide the impetus for house price growth in 2015.
House price inflation varies between markets and whether developing, investing or lending into local housing markets these local differentials are important.
What the analysis does show is the dangers of focusing on the UK rate of house price inflation and even regional growth rates. House price inflation varies between markets and whether developing, investing or lending into local housing markets these local differentials are important. For example, some house price indices put Scottish house price inflation in double digits while city level price inflation is much lower. Having an accurate view on house price growth is important for better informed decision making.
City level house price growth is holding steady at 8.4%. This month we reveal an updated view on city level affordability. This finds that after an 86% uplift in house prices since 2009, the price to earnings ratio in London now sits above 14x with Oxford and Cambridge close behind. Other cities are at or below their long run average. Read the Report to find out what this means for city level house price inflation.
City level house price growth is running at 8.5% but growth in London has slowed rapidly in the last quarter to the lowest level of quarterly growth for 20 months. Eleven cities are registering higher growth than at the start of 2016 while 9 are slowing.
The pace of city level house price inflation is slowing with growth in the year to August 2016 running at 8.2%. The 20 city index recorded its lowest level of quarterly growth (1.9%) for 6 months as a seasonal lull in market activity and weaker demand post Brexit and the March Stamp Duty change reduce the upward momentum of house price growth
The annual rate of house price inflation across the 20 cities has started to slow after 12 successive months of rising house price inflation A marked slowdown in the rate of growth over the last three months in London is behind the shift in momentum. However, house price growth in large regional cities outside southern England, continues to hold steady at 7-8% per annum with no sign of an imminent slowdown. Aberdeen is also registering a slower rate of price falls compared to recent months.